With reverse storm surge, especially in larger storms, the opposite happens, explained AccuWeather meteorologist Paul Pastelok in 2022, after Ian hit. “It can pull the water out because the wind flow is coming from land to ocean, and it pushes the water,” he said. “The power of the wind is incredible.”

Four years ago, a disaster planning project called "Hurricane Phoenix" imagined what the worst-case scenario would be for a hurricane hitting Tampa. The result looks a lot like some of the forecasts for the region as Hurricane Milton approaches.

Tampa Bay has not been hit directly by a major hurricane since 1921, and authorities fear its luck is about to run out.